Afghanistan Times
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KABUL – Moscow’s recognition of the Taliban government on July 3 has set off a potential diplomatic chain reaction that could reshape international engagement with Afghanistan. In a landmark move, Russia became the first major non-Islamic power to formally acknowledge the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate rulers, appointing an ambassador and raising the Taliban flag in Moscow. This step not only signifies a diplomatic breakthrough for the Taliban but also signals a shift in how the world may soon engage with the group — less as an isolated regime and more as a geopolitical reality.
Experts say the decision, grounded in strategic and economic interests rather than ideology, marks a new chapter in Taliban diplomacy — one that may encourage others to follow suit. Just hours after Russia’s recognition, Uzbekistan held its first official meeting with Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar, raising speculation about a regional recalibration. Kazakhstan and Belarus are also seen as potential next movers, while countries like China and Pakistan — already warming ties — could be spurred toward formal recognition by this precedent.
This diplomatic breakthrough comes as Russia looks to expand influence in Central Asia, with arms exports, infrastructure projects like the Trans-Afghan Railway, and labor migration deals all forming the backbone of a broader pivot toward the Global South. Russia’s move also deepens East-West competition over Afghanistan, challenging the Western policy of diplomatic isolation and potentially undermining sanctions-based containment.
While not every neighbor is likely to jump aboard — Iran’s deteriorating ties with Kabul, for instance, make near-term recognition unlikely — analysts warn that a gradual wave of recognitions could soon gain momentum, especially if the Taliban secure backing from key powers at upcoming forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in China this September.
In effect, Russia has thrown the first stone — and the ripples are already starting to spread.
