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KABUL – Afghanistan’s transit trade through Pakistan has collapsed to historic lows, with official figures showing declines of up to 84 percent in the past year as Islamabad’s sweeping anti-smuggling campaign throttles cross-border commerce.
Once a $7.1 billion annual corridor, transit volumes fell to $2.9 billion in 2023–24 and plunged further to just $836 million in the first nine months of the current fiscal year.
Pakistani authorities credit the crackdown with curbing illicit flows long hidden under the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement, but the measures have also strangled legitimate commerce, leaving Afghan traders turning to Iran’s Khaf–Herat railway as an alternative route.
Business leaders now warn that Pakistan risks permanently losing its role as Afghanistan’s trade gateway unless reforms — such as cargo scanners, insurance-based guarantees, and streamlined customs checks — are swiftly introduced.
The slump not only threatens livelihoods on both sides of the border but also reshapes regional supply chains, raising the prospect that Iran, not Pakistan, could become Afghanistan’s primary link to Central Asia and the Middle East.
