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KABUL – Pakistan’s inflation surged to 6.2% in October, the highest in a year, as the country grapples with flood devastation, disrupted trade, and worsening tensions at its border with Afghanistan — creating a perfect storm of economic and humanitarian stress across the region.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose by 1.8% month-on-month, fueled by soaring food costs after torrential floods ravaged farmlands in Punjab and Sindh. The floods, which killed more than 1,000 people and displaced over 2.5 million, destroyed crops of tomatoes, onions, and sugarcane — sending food inflation soaring.
But beyond the climate disaster, prolonged trade blockages with Afghanistan have sharply intensified the crisis. Crossings at Torkham and Spin Boldak, vital lifelines for food and raw materials, have remained restricted amid escalating border tensions. Hundreds of trucks laden with vegetables, dry fruits, and consumer goods remain stranded on both sides, worsening shortages in both countries.
Market traders in Peshawar and Quetta report tomato prices rising to Rs 600 per kg and capsicum to Rs 300, while Afghan exporters say their perishable goods are rotting due to weeks-long delays. “We used to send supplies daily, but now the borders are silent,” said one Afghan trader from Jalalabad. “This blockade hurts both economies.”
Economists warn that the dual impact of climate shocks and political strain between the two neighbors is reshaping Pakistan’s inflationary landscape. “Inflationary pressure in Pakistan is now structural — not just seasonal — because supply routes through Afghanistan are critical for food imports and transit trade,” said Islamabad-based analyst Dr Hassan Naseer.
The government, which had forecast inflation between 5% and 6%, admits the surge stems from “temporary supply shocks and base effects.” Yet officials privately concede that the continued freeze in cross-border commerce — following months of Taliban-Pakistan friction over militancy and security accusations — has compounded the crisis.
The State Bank of Pakistan has cautioned that inflation will likely remain above its 5–7% target range for the rest of the year, driven by imported food shortages, higher logistics costs, and weakened rural output. Core inflation — excluding food and energy — also climbed to 7.5% in urban and 8.4% in rural areas, indicating deeper economic pressure.
In Afghanistan, the ripple effects are being felt as well. Food markets in Nangarhar and Kandahar report spikes in prices of Pakistani flour, cooking oil, and sugar. Afghan truck drivers stranded near Chaman say many have run out of supplies. “The longer this continues, the harder it will be for ordinary people to afford daily food,” said a driver, Abdul Khalid.
Analysts now fear that the worsening border crisis could undermine regional stability, eroding both nations’ fragile economies at a time of recovery from floods, sanctions, and trade isolation.
“Climate disasters and closed borders have merged into one crisis,” said a senior economist in Karachi. “Pakistan’s inflation is not just an economic issue — it’s now a reflection of regional fragility.”
