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Aid Vacuum Leaves Afghanistan Teetering on Edge, Refugees Face Second Displacement

KABUL – Afghanistan is confronting a new wave of instability as critical shortages ripple across the country in the wake of collapsing international aid—putting millions at risk and raising fears that recently returned refugees could be forced to flee once again.

With almost all U.S. assistance now halted, Afghan families already struggling with economic hardship face a stark future. A recent study by the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) warns that the aid vacuum is pushing the country toward a fresh humanitarian crisis.

Among the most vulnerable are tens of thousands of Afghans deported from Pakistan in recent months. Many now live in overcrowded, under-resourced camps. Aid workers fear that as basic services unravel, desperation will drive another wave of displacement across the region.

“We’re seeing conditions deteriorate by the week,” said one NGO coordinator in eastern Afghanistan. “People who just returned are already preparing to leave again. They feel abandoned.”

The U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) confirms that approximately $1.8 billion in aid—previously earmarked for food, medicine, and essential services—has been withheld. This includes $765 million in humanitarian funding and over $1 billion in support for sectors like health, education, and welfare.

The effects are not just physical but economic: the loss of dollar-based cash shipments, once flown in to keep liquidity flowing under sanctions, is choking the country’s fragile recovery. A World Bank update warns that the aid collapse could derail what little progress has been made since the Taliban’s return to power.

“Healthcare systems are faltering, schools are at risk of closing, and women and children will bear the brunt,” the report states.

Experts now warn of a domino effect: worsening services may shrink human capital, deepen poverty, and destabilize entire communities.

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