Afghanistan Times
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KABUL — India’s strategic calculus in Afghanistan is facing a fresh challenge as China emerges as a key broker between the Taliban and Pakistan. The latest trilateral meetings involving Chinese, Pakistani, and Taliban officials signal deeper coordination — a development that has sparked concern in New Delhi.
Just days after Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held an unprecedented ministerial-level call with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban hosted China and Pakistan in Kabul and then engaged in follow-up talks in Beijing. These meetings reportedly focused on expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan and curbing India’s influence in the war-torn country.
While India cautiously expands its engagement with the Taliban through humanitarian aid and limited diplomatic outreach, it faces increasing pressure to assert its strategic interests amid what appears to be the emergence of a Beijing-Islamabad-Taliban axis. A local Pakistani media report suggested an understanding to “curtail” India’s role in Afghanistan — a claim that remains unverified but not unexpected given regional dynamics.
Meanwhile, New Delhi approved a limited resumption of Afghan truck entries through the Attari border as a “special gesture,” days after cross-border trade was halted in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam attack. Jaishankar welcomed the Taliban’s condemnation of the assault but stopped short of signaling any formal shift in diplomatic posture.
Despite $3 billion in infrastructure investments across Afghanistan, India’s influence remains largely soft-power driven — and now under strain. Taliban officials are reportedly seeking renewed Indian investment, especially in mining and energy, while encouraging greater use of Iran’s Chabahar port to bypass Pakistan.
Yet, Indian analysts warn that without security guarantees and sustained political trust, deeper engagement with the Taliban could prove risky. New Delhi’s Afghan outreach, they caution, must not be dictated by short-term gains or its rivalry with Islamabad.
As China tightens its grip on Kabul’s strategic affairs, India may be forced to recalibrate its regional strategy — and fast.
